Workforce projections to support recovery planning

We are sharing construction workforce projections to support regions affected by the North Island Weather Events earlier this year in their recovery planning. The work is part of the Recovery Construction Workforce Project jointly undertaken by Te Waihanga and the Construction Sector Accord. Waihanga Ara Rau, the Workforce Development Council, is providing additional recovery workforce projections for residential construction on their Workforce Information Platform.

Rebuilding from the impact of the weather events in the North Island will place a significant demand on the construction and infrastructure sector. Current projections indicate substantial investment is needed and that prospective recovery projects may create a peak annual demand for on-the-ground construction workers from 2025 until 2027 across the affected regions.

“By giving decision-makers early insights into potential labour demands, these projections can help affected regions plan and coordinate recovery. When used with on-the-ground insights and other information, workforce projections can give communities a tool for prioritising projects to make the most of the available workforce,” says Geoff Cooper, General Manager - Strategy, Te Waihanga.

“The workforce projections will continue to evolve as new information emerges on which projects are prioritised, planned and funded.”

Graham Burke, Transformation Lead, Construction Sector Accord, agrees, “We’re hoping these projections can give the construction industry information to use in their planning to meet future workforce needs. Building a workforce is a big investment, and these tools allow industry to make informed decisions around future demand.”

At the same time, Waihanga Ara Rau has enhanced its Workforce Information Platform to provide recovery workforce projections for the residential construction market.

“The changes we’ve made to the Workforce Information Platform mean that the construction sector will have visibility of the workforce needs for the residential recovery” says Mark Williams, GM – Strategy and Insights, Waihanga Ara Rau.

Burke adds, “Having established this capability, New Zealand will be better placed in the future to understand the scale of recovery and plan the construction activities needed after large events have impacted our homes, infrastructure assets and the services we depend on.”

Construction workforce projections

Today, we have released an interactive tool we have developed that shows the projected construction workforce that would be needed to deliver potential recovery projects, such as the repair or replacement of damaged public assets including roading, water and energy infrastructure.

We’ve worked collaboratively with infrastructure providers operating within the affected regions to build an understanding of potential projects that underlie the workforce projections. Many of these projects are in early planning stages. The projected workforce numbers will change over time as decisions are made, projects are funded, and as planners use information like these projections to help prioritise, coordinate, and schedule work across the infrastructure system.

What the tool shows so far

• Current projections indicate that North Island Weather Event recovery projects, and prospective projects, may create a significant peak in annual demand for on-the-ground construction workers across all affected regions from 2025 until 2027.
• Much of the projected on-the-ground construction workforce will be required in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti. The current projections indicate a peak recovery workforce in these regions in 2025 to 2027, this is mostly driven by transport projects. Projections for the Auckland region indicate a smaller peak, split between building work in 2025/2026 and water infrastructure in 2027/2028.
• For most projects, initial demand will be for the workers needed to plan and design solutions. This demand is currently projected to peak in 2024. The projected on the ground construction workforce will change depending on the outcome of this planning and design phase.
• The recovery work will be prioritised and coordinated alongside other non-recovery projects, some of which may adapt to accommodate higher priority recovery projects. This coordination will mean numbers of recovery workers presented does not reflect the need for new workers, only the potential workforce that may be needed to support the recovery.